A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
